Iran Enters Survival Mode After Assassination Of Supreme Leader Khamenei

Tehran, March 2: Two weeks ago something unprecedented happened on Iranian state TV – a reporter blurted out “death to Khamenei” when he was live on air. The journalist was covering state-organized rallies marking the anniversary of the 1979 revolution that ushered in Iran’s theocratic regime and he’d meant to say “death to America.”

His slip of the tongue cost him his job, but also crystallized the extent to which former Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – killed in US and Israeli airstrikes on Saturday – had become a figure of antipathy after almost 40 years of rigid rule over a country of more than 90 million people.

The 86-year-old cleric was killed after decades of trading threats and, more recently, missiles with Israel and the US. Satellite images showed the secure compound in downtown Tehran where his residence and offices had been, reduced to a gray mass. Four members of his family including his daughter and a grandchild, were also killed.

Khamenei’s demise has potentially seismic consequences for the Middle East and beyond. While it marks the end of an era for Iranians – the majority have only known one leader – for now, as the fighting continues in the Persian Gulf, the Islamic Republic as a system of rule continues to function.

“Iran’s conventional military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remain united, in control of the security apparatus and determined to resist until they exhaust the US and Israel – or go down fighting,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Social media videos over the weekend showed Iranians in some parts of the country celebrating Khamenei’s death. But there’s so far no sign of any efforts to “take over” the government, as US President Donald Trump has urged Iranians to do.
Security in towns and cities across the country has been tightened with reports from residents in the capital Tehran of large numbers of volunteer paramilitaries and armed police in the streets.

“Despite Trump’s call on the Iranian people to use this moment to rise up and topple the regime, ordinary Iranians are likely to prioritize safety and shelter rather than storming the streets,” Geranmayeh added.

There is no organized opposition in Iran. The constitution doesn’t allow for political factions that question or refuse to recognize the Islamic Republic and the concept of a religious supreme leader as immutable.

Reformists who have challenged this have often been imprisoned, including in the immediate aftermath of January’s protests during which security forces killed more than 7,000 people, according to the latest estimates by human rights groups. This lack of any tolerance for grassroots political movements that don’t have constitutional approval means Iranians living abroad have tended to dominate the sphere of alternative politics. The majority of them call for the complete removal of the theocratic system.

Reza Pahlavi, the former crown prince of Iran and son of the deposed Shah of Iran, emerged in recent protests as a masthead for many and helped drive thousands to take to the streets in early January. He is a polarizing figure in Iran and is yet to secure any backing from Trump.

The country’s remaining top political and security officials appear to be making decisions having spent the months since Israel and the US’s air strikes in June preparing for the possibility of war and Khamenei’s potential assassination.

“His death is bound to have significant consequences for the life of the Islamic Republic, not necessarily for its survival, but for the way the Islamic Republic conducts itself domestically as well as internationally,” Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar said.

“In the short term, Iran will be governed according to the constitution. It will be governed by a council made up of the heads of the judiciary, the legislature, and the executive,” Kamrava said adding that the Assembly of Experts – which will select Khamenei’s successor – is expected to meet as normal. Speculation as to who that successor might be often centers on Khamenei’s second-eldest son Mojtaba who is thought to be still alive.

“The very fact that his death was announced so quickly,” added Kamrava, “implies one of two things: either his death was hard to hide or a successor has already been selected behind the scenes and leadership succession is already on the way.”