
Washington: On March 4, five days into the Iran war, Donald Trump said Iran’s air force and navy had been eliminated. “They have no navy; it’s been knocked out. No air force; it’s been knocked out. No air detection – that’s been knocked out.”
On April 2, 34 days into the war, Trump again said Iran’s military had been destroyed. “Iran’s Navy is gone, Air Force is in ruins, and their leaders – most of them – and the terrorist regime they led are now dead…”
The US has only destroyed a third of Iran’s vast missile arsenal despite having pounded launch sites, missile silos, and military sites over the past 35 days, Reuters reported last week citing inputs from five intelligence community sources. The status of another third is unclear, but they have likely been damaged, four sources said.
One of the sources said the intelligence was similar for Iran’s drone capability, saying there was some degree of certainty about only a third having been destroyed. A report by American broadcaster CNN offered a less optimistic estimate. On April 3 US intelligence sources told CNN ‘roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers are still intact’, as are ‘a large percentage of cruise missiles on the coast’. Strikes on Iran’s launchers may also reduce its ability to deploy missiles.
But it is the second bit of information in the CNN report that is critical since it suggests Tehran can still enforce its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade has roiled the global energy market, driving up fuel and gas prices worldwide and threatening to overwhelm poor countries.
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