New Delhi: Several exit polls released Wednesday projected a decisive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam and an edge for the saffron party over the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal.
The polls also forecast a return of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) government in Tamil Nadu, a Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) comeback in Kerala after a decade, and the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government’s return to power in Puducherry.
Assam
Assam witnessed a direct contest between the BJP, led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, and the Congress, headed by Gaurav Gogoi, son of the late former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi.
According to the Axis-My India Exit Poll, the BJP-led alliance is projected to win 88-100 seats in the 126-seat Assembly, where the majority mark is 61. The Congress is expected to secure 24-36 seats.
The Matrize Exit Poll predicts the BJP-led alliance will secure 85-95 seats, with the Congress expected to win 25-32 seats and others and independents projected to claim 6-12 seats.
Similarly, the CNN-News18 Exit Poll forecasts 90-100 seats for the BJP-led alliance in Assam. It anticipates the Congress will obtain 23-33 seats, while the AUDF could win between 0 and 6 seats.
The Peoples Pulse Exit Poll gave the ruling BJP 68-72 seats in Assam, with the opposition Congress expected to secure 22-26 seats, and others and independents predicted to claim 11-15 seats.
Voting for all 126 constituencies was held on April 9, recording a record voter turnout of 85.38 per cent. The vote counting is scheduled for May 4, 2026.
West Bengal
Among the first agencies to release their exit poll predictions for West Bengal, Peoples Pulse projects a thumping win for the ruling TMC, with seats between 177 and 197. The same poll allocates 95 to 110 seats for the BJP and just one seat for others.
In Tamil Nadu, the electoral contest between the DMK, led by Chief Minister MK Stalin, and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), headed by former Chief Minister E.K. Palaniswami (EPS), appears to be leaning in favour of the incumbent.
The Matrize exit polls showed the DMK-led alliance getting 122-132 seats while they predicted 87-110 seats for the AIADMK and 10-15 seats for actor-politician Vijay in the 234-seat assembly where the halfway mark is 117. Vijay’s party Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) contested solo in all 234 constituencies across the state.
The Peoples Pulse exit poll projected the ruling DMK to secure 125 seats in Tamil Nadu, while predicting the opposition AIADMK could win 65-80 seats and Vijay’s TVK could capture 18-24 seats.
In contrast, the News18 exit poll presented a different scenario, forecasting 103-113 seats for the DMK and a stronger performance for the AIADMK with 114-124 seats, while expecting TVK to win 4-10 seats.
Meanwhile, the P-MARQ exit poll predicted the DMK would win 125-145 seats and the AIADMK 65-85 seats, giving a higher estimate for TVK’s performance with 16-26 seats.
Kerala
The Axis My India exit poll gave a clear edge to the Congress-led UDF in Kerala, predicting the alliance to win 78-90 seats in the 140-member assembly while the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) could win 49-62 seats. The NDA could win 0-3 seats in the assembly election results, per the data.
The Axis My India also predicted a 45 per cent and 43 per cent vote share in male and female genders, respectively, for the Congress-led UDF. The LDF accounts for 37 per cent and 41 per cent of male and female vote share as per the exit poll.
It shows that the NDA could get a vote share of 15 per cent and 13 per cent among men and women, respectively.
Puducherry
According to exit polls, the NDA is expected to secure a majority or emerge as the single largest alliance in the 30-member Puducherry Assembly.
Per the Peoples Pulse exit poll, AINRC is projected to emerge as the leading party with 10-12 seats. And its NDA partner BJP is expected to secure 5-6 seats. The DMK, on the other hand, is projected to win between 6 and 8 seats, it says. The Congress is projected to get 1-3 seats.
Smaller parties are likely to have limited impact, with LJK and Others expected to win 1–2 seats each and AIADMK and TVK projected to secure 0-1 seats each.
According to Axis My India, the NDA is projected to secure between 16 and 20 seats. The DMK–Congress-led alliance is expected to win 6 to 8 seats, while actor Vijay’s TVK could emerge with 2 to 4 seats.
